Nearly 80% of mortgaged US owners had loans below current mid-6% levels, creating lock-in that discouraged moves and kept many would-be sellers sidelined.
The bank expected H2 2026 existing-home sales near 4.2M annualized, while US home prices were projected to finish 2026 up only ~1%.
With owners reluctant to trade low loans for costlier ones, listings stayed scarce, keeping inventory tight and making a major US home-price drop look unlikely.
Even in a subdued market, favorable demographics and rising purchase intent among younger households signaled a long-term demand floor for US housing.
Mortgage rates were expected to stay in the mid-6% range through end-2026, keeping the US housing market slow and subdued unless borrowing costs eased later.
