Mortgage rates ↑0.625% since Late-Winter 2026 war start, but remain ↓0.625% versus Early-2025 levels.
Biggest near-term risk: mortgage bonds selling off on oil-driven inflation fears, pushing rates higher during volatility.
Markets priced ~32% odds of a 25-basis-point Fed hike by Mid-Fall 2026 to curb inflation.
Advice for buyers and refinancers: lock rates now; many lenders allow renegotiation to capture ~half later drops.
Home prices stayed ~flat yearly; equity near-record $17T, with $11T tappable while keeping 20% equity overall.
I’m seeing mortgage rates swing higher on war-driven inflation worries, while home prices stay mostly flat. That combination can improve affordability, and it makes rate-lock decisions especially important for buyers and refinancers.
