Mortgage rates may drift to 5.75–6%, helping sales rise 5% in 2026 and 10% in 2027.
Even a 2027 rebound would leave sales about 5% below pre-pandemic levels.
Slightly lower rates and fiscal boosts may spark improvement, but the recovery stays slow and fragile.
Builders boost new sales with big inventories, incentives, and prices now 8% below their peak.
Buyers lean toward new homes as they now make up 30% of inventory and sometimes sell at discounts.