Most forecasts expect mortgage rates to stay between 5.6% and 6.4%, making a return to 5% by 2027 unlikely under current economic conditions.
Persistent inflation and global uncertainty are keeping borrowing costs elevated, slowing the pace of any meaningful rate declines.
The Federal Reserve’s cautious stance on rate cuts will likely prevent mortgage rates from dropping sharply in the near term.
A move to 5% would likely require a major economic slowdown or recession, which is not the base-case scenario for 2026–2027.
